Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 2.708541 2.895678 3.096242 3.328406 3.591310 3.881679 4.229294
2025-03-02 2.423110 2.672221 2.954001 3.300442 3.720848 4.222681 4.880284
2025-03-09 2.238329 2.519998 2.850484 3.274487 3.815997 4.502698 5.472627
2025-03-16 2.110653 2.414651 2.781754 3.269270 3.919175 4.788134 6.103540
2025-03-23 2.029506 2.354886 2.758043 3.310626 4.077711 5.158029 6.914840
2025-03-30 1.925377 2.256685 2.674849 3.261460 4.101019 5.332269 7.455359
2025-04-06 1.834785 2.168808 2.597061 3.209959 4.111012 5.481752 7.979666
2025-04-13 1.741394 2.071441 2.499596 3.121725 4.055508 5.517782 8.306037
2025-04-20 1.701878 2.042144 2.490816 3.156842 4.186683 5.869596 9.309563
2025-04-27 1.675753 2.028606 2.501683 3.219676 4.365417 6.327113 10.672131
2025-05-04 1.649987 2.013683 2.508878 3.276291 4.538623 6.802614 12.260880
2025-05-11 1.600231 1.963216 2.462417 3.246734 4.563361 7.001430 13.252496
2025-05-18 1.555153 1.918143 2.422507 3.226293 4.604765 7.246763 14.507989
2025-05-25 1.511766 1.873663 2.381223 3.200731 4.634415 7.473898 15.840361
2025-06-01 1.471798 1.832337 2.342414 3.176171 4.662770 7.702970 17.324954
2025-06-08 1.439810 1.801053 2.316877 3.171224 4.726361 8.022406 19.371374
2025-06-15 1.421266 1.788226 2.318209 3.210515 4.877749 8.579475 22.919527
2025-06-22 1.382524 1.744632 2.270655 3.163804 4.855556 8.706429 24.666194
2025-06-29 1.345430 1.702287 2.223369 3.114849 4.824407 8.805919 26.416994
2025-07-06 1.301871 1.649252 2.157761 3.030914 4.715405 8.682961 26.824362
2025-07-13 1.288137 1.639747 2.159385 3.064329 4.851521 9.254007 32.423035
2025-07-20 1.281003 1.639652 2.175516 3.124087 5.049852 10.060467 42.060360
2025-07-27 1.272712 1.637440 2.188016 3.177897 5.242048 10.917320 56.408399